Volumes, theses and notes
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Articles
- Technology Is Becoming an Asset ClassMarkets know how to price companies. They still struggle to price the technology inside them.
- Fund the Company Now. Price It When the Evidence Arrives.A deep-tech founder is often asked to price an experiment before raising enough money to run it.
- The Most Expensive Mistake in Business Is Confusing Sequence with CauseA company raises prices and revenue grows. A hospital introduces a new technology and patients improve. A government offers a subsidy and jobs increase. The natural conclusion is that the decision created the outcome.
- The Best Healthcare AI May Be the Easiest to Question A liver transplant in my family changed how I judge healthcare technology. In a high-stakes setting, “the model was usually right” is not a comforting sentence. Healthcare AI is often evaluated as a prediction problem. How accurate is the model?…
- AI Has a Balance Sheet. We Keep Looking at the Interface. Most people experience AI in a chat window. That makes it easy to think of the industry as a software story. I see a more physical one. Every useful answer begins much earlier, in data centers, accelerators, power systems, packaging,…
- A Billion-Dollar Market Is Not Yet a Business Entrepreneurs love large markets because the numbers do some emotional work. A slide says $40 billion and suddenly the company feels inevitable. I have built those slides and reviewed them for companies. The number is often true. The conclusion usually…
Updates
Occasional notes
New analysis and published work, no more than monthly.